Most online sports betting enthusiasts at some time or another have been in the situation where they considered backing the underdog, simply because they could get the best football odds this way. However, statistically speaking, one would actually win more if they went around blindly backing favourites, as opposed to blindly backing underdogs. In most cases, the underdogs don’t win, and that’s why they are priced at odds that make punters drool at the mouth. But is there any way that betting on the underdog can be beneficial?
It’s a longstanding fact that favourites get picked by punters at the best sports betting brands, mainly because they are good, and sometimes because the oddsmakers deem them to be a stronger contender than the others, making them more appealing to everyone else. However, if you have a keen eye for odds, a good understanding of the sport in question and knowledge of specific teams, there is value in betting on the underdog when done in the right way.
Look for False Odds
Let’s start off by saying that in general and most of the time, backing the underdog when online or mobile sports betting is a bad idea. However, there are exceptions. One exception is where the odds for the particular event have been completely misrepresented. It often happens that sports betting sites release false odds that skew the theoretical probability of a team winning. When comparing the odds, it may seem like the team has a 10% or 15% chance of winning when in reality is more like 40% or 45%.
Consider the Arrogance Factor
With sports like rugby or football, top-rated teams usually have a sense of arrogance and invulnerability when playing against a side that has yet to win a game in any format at home or away. As so often happens in the FA Cup and other tournaments, the underdog scores a lucky goal in the first half. This completely throws off the favourite, forcing them into a state of shocked panic from which they never recover. Arrogance often leads to an underdog win and even if you got the best football odds on the favourite, you’d have done better backing the other team.
Playing at Home
While home ground advantage is taken into account when posting the odds, sometimes the bookmakers underestimate the passion of the team when playing at home. Even if the visiting team is the best rated in the league, the underdog, given the right spark and a good dollop of enthusiasm can pull off an upset. Mobile sports betting statistics show that most of the upsets come from games where the underdog is playing in front of a home crowed or at a stadium where they have loads of supporters.
Don’t Go for Huge Underdogs
One of the key mistakes most punters make when backing the underdog is to go for the Hail Mary bet. This is where the odds are so high that a winning bet would fantastically rewarding. Even when you are betting on the underdog, you have to consider the probability of certain events within the realm of impossibility.
What we are saying is, only bet on a situation where the underdog might just pull off a win and where the odds are equal to the risk involved. There is no point in risking an underdog bet at even the best sports betting brands for odds of 5.00, or even 10.00. That being said, any odds of 30.00 and above have to evaluated on the probability scale with all the information at hand.